@InProceedings{HamadaVoFeAlSoVi:2015:SiEfMu,
               author = "Hamada, Emilia and Volpato, Margarete Marin Lordelo and Ferreira, 
                         Giovane de Lima and Alves, Helena Maria Ramos and Souza, Vanessa 
                         Cristina Oliveira de and Vieira, Tatiana Grossi Chquiloff",
          affiliation = "{} and {} and {} and {} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Simula{\c{c}}{\~a}o dos efeitos das mudan{\c{c}}as 
                         clim{\'a}ticas sobre a ferrugem do caf{\'e} na regi{\~a}o 
                         Sudeste do Brasil",
            booktitle = "Anais...",
                 year = "2015",
               editor = "Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino and Arag{\~a}o, Luiz 
                         Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de",
                pages = "2629--2636",
         organization = "Simp{\'o}sio Brasileiro de Sensoriamento Remoto, 17. (SBSR)",
            publisher = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
              address = "S{\~a}o Jos{\'e} dos Campos",
             abstract = "Brazil is the largest producer and exporter of coffee in the 
                         world. The rust (Hemileia vastratrix) is the most important 
                         disease of coffee crop in Brazil, with important damage effects on 
                         its production. The climate can directly and indirectly affect the 
                         interaction between the coffee plant and the fungus. Accordingly, 
                         the climate change can alter the spatial distribution and 
                         favorability of the disease, resulting in new distribution 
                         pattern. The present study aimed to simulate future scenarios of 
                         coffee rust epidemics by mapping the geographical distribution and 
                         adopting a logic mathematical criteria that estimates climate 
                         favorability of pathogen incidence and data projected by global 
                         climate models from IPCC AR4 (Fourth Assessment Report). The study 
                         considered the months (April, May, and June) of period of 
                         1961-1990 and future periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 
                         2071-2100, B1 and A2 scenarios of IPCC. According to the results 
                         obtained, for current climate (1961-1990) the percentage of 
                         unfavorable areas to the occurrence of the disease ranges from 
                         approximately 40% in April, 20% in May, and 10% in June. For 
                         future scenarios, the occurrence ratio changes to approximately 
                         20% in the months from April to June, with the exception of the A2 
                         scenario to 2071-2100 period, which provides approximately 10% of 
                         unfavorable area. Thus, there is a tendency in the future to 
                         increase the favorability of incidence of the rust on coffee in 
                         Southeast region of Brazil. On average, the maps obtained in 
                         scenarios B1 and A2 had a similar tendency.",
  conference-location = "Jo{\~a}o Pessoa",
      conference-year = "25-29 abr. 2015",
                 isbn = "978-85-17-0076-8",
                label = "524",
             language = "pt",
         organisation = "Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM4A89",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP6W34M/3JM4A89",
           targetfile = "p0524.pdf",
                 type = "Mudan{\c{c}}as clim{\'a}ticas",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}